This week, investors and market watchers focus on several important events that will shape both global and Indian financial markets. India’s October wholesale inflation data, US retail sales figures, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and Nvidia’s earnings report are among the key highlights. These factors will influence market sentiment, inflation expectations, and monetary policy decisions.
- India’s October wholesale inflation data is due on November 16, with expectations around 12.1% year-on-year.
- US retail sales and industrial production figures will be released on November 17.
- The Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes will be published on November 18.
- Nvidia and other major US companies will report earnings this week.
- Indian stock markets showed gains but lost momentum due to rising inflation and crude oil prices.
What is the current situation in Indian markets?
Indian stock markets extended their weekly gains but slowed after a strong rally the previous week. The NIFTY50 index rose by 0.4% to 25,144 points, and the SENSEX increased by 0.7% to 81,592 points. Foreign investors continued buying, and strong bank earnings supported the market during a week shortened by holidays.
However, the market cooled on Friday after crude oil prices rose from midweek lows and October’s retail inflation was reported at 6.09%. This inflation rate is above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper tolerance limit of 6%, raising concerns about possible further interest rate hikes.
Broader market indices outperformed the headline indices. The Nifty Midcap 150 gained 1.5%, and the Nifty Smallcap 250 rose 1.9%. Public sector banks led sectoral gains, supported by better quarterly results and increased credit demand, with some banks gaining over 7% during the week.
How did different sectors perform?
The banking sector showed strong gains, with the Nifty Bank index rising 3.3% to 61,034 points, just below its all-time high. Both public and private banks participated in the rally. Key banks like Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, and State Bank of India saw significant share price increases.
On the other hand, the IT sector declined by 3.1%, ending a six-week winning streak. Investors reassessed global trade prospects related to artificial intelligence. Other sectors such as capital markets, media, banking, and real estate outperformed the NIFTY50’s modest gains, while auto, infrastructure, oil and gas, and FMCG sectors rose but lagged behind.
What key economic data will be released this week?
India will release its October wholesale inflation data on November 16. Market participants expect inflation to rise to about 12.1% year-on-year, up from 11.39% in September. This data will help determine if fuel and manufacturing price increases will continue to pressure consumer inflation and corporate margins.
In the United States, October retail sales and industrial production figures will be published on November 17. Initial jobless claims data will follow on November 19. These reports will indicate whether economic activity is slowing enough to reduce inflation pressures.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its October 27–28 meeting on November 18. Investors will look for clues about the likelihood of further interest rate increases, although these minutes will not reflect the most recent inflation data. Statements from Fed officials and movements in US bond yields will also influence the US dollar and Indian equity flows.
What earnings reports are expected this week?
Several major US companies will report earnings this week. Nvidia will announce its results on November 17 after market close, with investors focusing on demand, profit margins, customer spending, and future guidance following a recent leadership change. Disney and Home Depot will also report on November 17, while Walmart’s earnings are due on November 19. These consumer companies’ results will provide insights into household spending and pricing power amid high energy and borrowing costs.
How are crude oil prices affecting the markets?
Crude oil prices declined last week, with January Brent crude settling at $95 per barrel and December West Texas Intermediate at $88 per barrel, both down about 2.5%. Increased supply and weaker demand expectations outweighed a late-week rebound caused by attacks on Saudi infrastructure and tankers.
The International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October, reaching 10.54 million barrels per day. It expects demand to fall by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026, leading to a surplus in the fourth quarter. This outlook supports softer crude prices, although diesel and freight costs remain high.
What is the outlook for market momentum and foreign investment?
Market breadth remains strong, with 84% of NIFTY50 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. This is slightly lower than the previous week’s 88%, indicating some cooling after the recent rally but still healthy participation.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought a net ₹33,342 crore in the cash market during the week ending November 13, including a special Muhurat trading session. This brought November’s net foreign buying to ₹79,302 crore so far. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold a net ₹24,892 crore during the same period, but foreign buying more than offset domestic selling, resulting in combined net purchases of ₹8,450 crore for the week.
The NIFTY50 index is consolidating after last week’s sharp rally, remaining above key moving averages that signal a bullish trend. However, the relative strength index (RSI) has declined from near 80 to about 75, showing that momentum is cooling from an overbought level.
Immediate resistance for the NIFTY50 is at 25,424 points. A close above this level could continue the uptrend, while a drop below the recent low of 25,054 points might deepen the pullback toward support levels at 24,296 points and further down near 24,000 points.
